Exec Musical Chairs: The State of PlayPart I: How the town's Big Jobs could shake out as the ground shifts underneath each studio
It's time for a little housekeeping here at The Ankler. The tectonic plates have been shifting once again in recent weeks with big personnel shifts at Warners and Disney, but it feels like merely a harbinger of things to come. Is there an exec in Hollywood that you could put more than even money odds that they will be in their job four years from now? Even two years from now? By end of the year? Will their jobs even exist? Will their companies exist? Everything is on the table. What's more, what with the recent rounds, the ranks are overflowing with contenders for the big jobs and would-be jobs. The list swells with likely CEOs of companies that haven't even been invented yet. With all the shuffling and maneuvering, it seemed like time to evaluate how the institutional reckonings around town will shape the executive musical chairs coming down the pike. Part II of this series (coming next week) will get to the meat of the players, contenders and names to watch. But first, the studios. Ready to play? NetflixThe Big Question: Is a turnaround coming? Thus far the Netflix crash has been greeted with a smattering of low-to-mid level layoffs, persistent rumors about belt-tightening across the empire, but not even a little change in the highest ranks (although rumors flare about one Ankling said to be moments, just moments, away.) Just post-stock crash there were murmurs that the Reed and Ted show was about to break up and the Keeper test would fall on the studio's top man, but that threat seems to have faded along with the consumer awareness of Spiderhead. So they would seem to be in mid-reboot, except at the top there's no reboot to behold. In fact, just yesterday, TV boss Bela Bajaria insisted, “We’re not doing some radical shift in our business. We’re not merging. We’re not just having a big transitional phase.” Alrighty then. Growth spiral put in reverse, but no major rethink or recasting needed. Steady as she goes. Which means, this better work, or else it's you know-who's-you-know-what on the line. (You know who being the entire management team most likely.) Should those top jobs become available, the line starts at the door for the replacements in what will be the biggest star search since the casting of Scarlett O'Hara, with everyone from rival studio bosses to tech wunderkinds throwing their names in the hat. The demand from Hollywood will be deafening that the position must go to some pillar of the community to “normalize” Netflix. But even if Reed wanted to make a change, it's hard to see how in this lifetime, someone who has shaken up so much turning to the class he vanquished and saying — eh, I need you guys to show me how to do this. Should The Service be snatched up by one of its competitors, however… well, that will ignite the hottest guessing game in town. But don't count out the current team quite yet. Netflix's miracle might have gotten a few knocks and dings in recent weeks, but it remains the miracle company of the past decade, and its ability to pull a few paradigm-destroying hits out of its hat should not be underestimated. AmazonThe Big Question: Why? As it has been since its launch, Amazon's entertainment division remains a mystery wrapped in an enigma wrapped in a cluster f*** shrouded in a blizzard of Jeff Bezos’ awards circuit invites. Start with: What the hell are they doing and why? The perpetual Amazon riddle. What is the metric any of this is judged by? Now add to that, a just acquired, newly leaderless mini-studio whose $8 billion price tag (nearly triple what they themselves said it was worth) has to be justified. The most recent spate of rumors coming out of the company says that they are happy with the state of the TV side — which has churned out consistent buzzy “hits” — confused and concerned about the film side, and completely lost on what to do with MGM, so goes the rumors which make sense on a facile, eyeballing-it level. So Jennifer Salke would appear to be “safe” — although with the most expensive show in history, the Lord of the Rings project, coming down the pike, the fate of that could go some way towards determining everyone's future. (Although again, perhaps that is too much the pet project of Lord Bezos for anyone else to be on the line there.) Having just lost the celebrated Mike and Pam team from MGM, Mike Hopkins is said to be searching for a splashy, high-profile hire to prove that their new division is still a going concern. However widely rumored negotiations with Emma Watts who would certainly fit that bill, have not resulted in an announcement and the search is said to continue. Of course if Amazon ever set its targets on... any goal you can think of in entertainment, they have the firepower now matched with some experience in house so they could eat most of the rest of the industry for a midnight snack. But as of this writing, that level of focus remains unseen. AppleThe Big Question: Is the halo enough? Well, here's one company on the list that you know isn't about to be acquired. And it doesn't particularly look like they are about to acquire anyone either, no matter how many analysts write that this or that combination “makes sense.” The working assumption for Apple remains, from this desk anyway, that the entire entertainment project is a branding exercise for the company. Make a few series with very high-level stars at a very high level of production values, maybe win some awards along the way to put a halo around the company, to reinforce Apple's image of the world's aspirational “we only kind of do evil things” brand. On that level, they are succeeding, shaking off some early doldrums with a recent winning streak led by Severance and Ted Lasso, surprise hits compared with the costly disappointment of The Morning Show. Given that goal — and there's little evidence that they are looking for more than that — there's not much reason for them to buy anybody. Sure, if they wanted to, they could put together the combination to swallow Hollywood, but there's no reason to think they have any interest in that, hard as that may be to swallow. And given that, there's not much reason to suspect any kind of shake-up is at hand. Zack and Jamie can breathe easy these days.
DisneyThe Big Question: To Bob or not to Bob We don't have to question whether the company will still exist. Or even will it still be captain of its own destiny. Getting swallowed by Apple is feasibly possible maybe, but probably not a contingency we have to do too much prep for right now. What is a totally wide open question is the leadership. Specifically, in two or four years down the line will the company still be under the reign of Bob II? Or will it have reverted to Bob I. Or is there somewhere a Bob the Third in the wings waiting to emerge, and a page turned entirely? The big question is: if not Bob II, then who? If Bob I went to great lengths to remove any rival for his job, he didn't leave behind a bench of plausible successors. And with the one person who could have stepped into his shoes now sent packing, there's not a lot of internal choices for the board to turn to. Kareem Daniel is too new at this level and too PR-adverse to step into the CEO chair. Dana Walden could lead the company some day, but having just stepped into her new job, that would be a big leap in short order. Would the board go outside for a new leader? That's something they haven't come close to doing since 1984 — before the dawn of the fax machine. If they were to go outside, that would be another casting call for the ages. Being Disney, one would imagine the disruptive trauma of reaching outside would in itself be so great that they wouldn't look to make any waves with the pick. Stately and reassuring would be the specs. But look around, you won't find a lot of those elder statesmen hanging around these days. So Jason Kilar need not apply, but Peter Chernin, ready for life back at the desk? Warner Bros. DiscoveryThe Big Question: What now? David Zaslav did the impossible and used a collection of bargain basement reality shows as a springboard to take over one of Hollywood's remaining legacy studios. By combined size alone, it ranks in the first tier of producers, but we're still waiting for an answer to Warners + Discovery = ? More to the point: Warners + Discovery + tens of billions of debt = ? It's tough to game out what lies ahead for Mr. Z's still onboarding (some still being recruited) management team without having a sense of that. He says all the things a Great Studio Owner should say — treasuring talent, commitment to theatrical — but he also says, we're not throwing money at Clint Eastwood just to be nice to him. So where in the middle of that does the company wind up? How does the new film team fit into the Zaslav let-no-penny-go-wasted vision? My colleague ESG says it sounds great so far but it’s all TBD. You can say having just come aboard — or as in the case of Casey Bloys, having been reconfirmed — the team should have a couple years at least to run their playbook. But beyond that, whether this thing lasts as a standalone Frankenstein's monster or whether it needs to merge once more to stay in the game (creating a mega-studio/service with Comcast, say) remains to be seen. One potential source of shuffling — if Zaslav realizes that having every division report direct to him is more than even he can micromanage; that they don't make hours early enough for him to talk to everyone about everything before dawn, and he needs to bring in a super-boss after all between him and the divisions. If that happens, given his penchant for Hollywood Royalty, it will be bring in the Usual Lions of Industry time. No one below former studio boss need apply. Comcast/NBC/Universal/PeacockThe Big Question: What's the next deal? This may be the lone island of stability through recent turmoil. If this were 2008 and the story was just a theatrical film story, you'd say they seem to have found the model: a handful of giant, surefire tentpole machines (Fast, Jurassic, Illumination stuff) mixed with the biggest number of mid-range and non-IP films of any studio + Blumhouse. Of all the film bosses, perhaps none looks safer in their job than Donna Langley. Unfortunately this isn't 2008, so a couple questions loom over the whole enterprise:
The first indicates a big question mark about how long Comcast can stick with cable and theatrical and remain the last place also-ran of the Streaming Wars. The answer to that, given the resurgence of theatrical and cable's stubborn refusal to die on schedule, might well be a long time. But so abject is Peacock's also-ran status that it gives rise to suspicions that its part of a secret plan (Ankler Rule #9: There are no secret plans); that Peacock is a placeholder for the larger streaming service to come — perhaps in combination with another company; perhaps another company's service will just become the Comcast service? Who could that other company be? We know Brian Roberts loves nothing like a piping-hot acquisition. There isn't one out there that hasn't been said to be the target of an imminent Comcast takeover. Currently, with its price now making it a relative bargain, Netflix stars as the leading target. One wonders what would be the fate of Ted and Bela in such a scenario, but a Comcast conquest creates an interesting situation for Scott Stuber, who would return under the umbrella where he spent most of his career, and presumably has a few friends still in his Rolodex. But other possibilities: it could merge with the rising but still smaller Warners Discovery to form what could become THE super-studio of the town. With Zaslav just taking the chair, that's some years away, but years go fast in the streaming war. And then does Donna become the new Queen of Hollywood — the heiress to the Iger/Ovitz/Wasserman/Mayer throne, leading such a company? Other possibilities: It buys Sony or Paramount, or Sony and Paramount. In either of the above scenarios, you see some top executives entering the job pool and becoming contenders on the Merry Go Round. ParamountThe Big Question: When does Shari bail out? Actually the big question looming over Paramount is suddenly looking a little moth-eaten. Since her ascension, the only female owner in media has lived with a constant drumbeat from the Twitter bros of business media demanding that she unload it all immediately. And to be fair to the drummers, the record of her decisions over the past few years did little to suggest they weren't out to lunch. But we come back to Ankler Rule #1: This is a business of hits, and hits change everything. And what do you know: who do we find in the cat bird seat but little ol’ doomed and cursed Paramount. On the big screen, Jim and Emma's zombie slate has propelled the studio to the front of the class (although the rest of the year may prove thinner than the first half). And in the streaming war, laughingstock also ran Paramount+ is home to the biggest hit machine TV has right now — the Taylor Sheridan Yellowstone universe, on the back of which the service's subscriber numbers are suddenly... very respectable. Brian Robbins is still settling into the job, but has seemed impressively smart and normal (i.e. not a jargon-spouting MBA type) as he gets comfortable, so there's not much reason to think that his chair will revolve. It seems more likely Shari would make a change at the Bakish level if things get rocky. However, the constant question of whether Paramount will become the Paramount or CBS division of some other company looms. Even with the recent successes, it takes a lot of cash to play the big game these days, and it’s still a question whether Paramount will have it. Warren Buffet though has given his vote of confidence. SonyThe Big Question: How far can the arms dealer schtick go? Credit where due: America's Most Beloved Entertainment Executive Tom Rothman has turned the seemingly snakebit studio into an actual profit center through a combination of sane handling of the inherited Amy Pascal line-up and a vigorous program of dumping anything questionable on the streamers. As long as it goes on like this, the patience of the corporate overlords in Tokyo seems fairly elastic, but the danger looms that at some point, the streamers just get better at making their own movies and stop lining up to pay a premium for Sony's cast-offs. But as we’ve seen, that may take a while. And then there's always the chance that the perpetual rumor that someone or another is going to buy them comes true. This quarter that looks a little less likely — with Netflix no longer dripping cash, Amazon still struggling to swallow MGM and Apple seeming to have no interest in expanding beyond their own lineup. Given all that, AMBEE would seem to have a job for as long as he wants it. Not to discount the possibility that this success has given a taste for bigger things and he's looking out at potential open seats elsewhere. If you see any Disney board members dropping by for a lunch on lot, or swinging a few holes with him at Bel Air, give us a ring. And while AMBEE stays put, so do Josh and Sanford. Unless they are getting tired of the waiting game and looking to jump into the executives’ rotisserie league themselves. So that there is the battlefield. What about the players? Stay tuned for our lineups next week!
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Exec Musical Chairs: The State of Play
June 15, 2022
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